January 30, 2008 - No. 12 -
Supplement
Manley Report: In the Background
• Pre-Emptive
Nuclear Strike a Key Option, NATO Told - Ian Traynor, The
Guardian
• NATO Hears 'Noise before Defeat'
- M.K.Bhadrakumar, Asia Times Online
• U.S. War on Terror Moves East -
Jim
Lobe, Inter Press Service
Pre-Emptive Nuclear Strike a Key Option, NATO Told
- Ian Traynor, The Guardian, January 22,
2008 -
The west must be ready to resort to a pre-emptive
nuclear attack to try to halt the "imminent" spread of nuclear and
other weapons of mass destruction, according to a radical manifesto for
a new Nato by five of the west's most senior military officers and
strategists.
Calling for root-and-branch reform of Nato and a new
pact drawing the U.S., Nato and the European Union together in a "grand
strategy" to tackle the challenges of an increasingly brutal world, the
former armed forces chiefs from the U.S., Britain, Germany, France and
the Netherlands insist that a "first
strike" nuclear option remains an "indispensable instrument" since
there is "simply no realistic prospect of a nuclear-free world."
The manifesto has been written following discussions
with active commanders and policymakers, many of whom are unable or
unwilling to publicly air their views. It has been presented to the
Pentagon in Washington and to Nato's secretary general, Jaap de Hoop
Scheffer, over the past 10 days. The
proposals are likely to be discussed at a Nato summit in Bucharest in
April.
"The risk of further [nuclear] proliferation is
imminent and, with it, the danger that nuclear war fighting, albeit
limited in scope, might become possible," the authors argued in the
150-page blueprint for urgent reform of western military strategy and
structures. "The first use of nuclear weapons must
remain in the quiver of escalation as the ultimate instrument to
prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction."
The authors -- General John Shalikashvili, the former
chairman of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff and Nato's ex-supreme
commander in Europe, General Klaus Naumann, Germany's former top
soldier and ex-chairman of Nato's military committee, General Henk van
den Breemen, a former Dutch chief
of staff, Admiral Jacques Lanxade, a former French chief of staff, and
Lord Inge, field marshal and ex-chief of the general staff and the
defence staff in the UK -- paint an alarming picture of the threats and
challenges confronting the west in the post-9/11 world and deliver a
withering verdict on the ability to cope.
The five commanders argue that the west's values and
way of life are under threat, but the west is struggling to summon the
will to defend them. The key threats are:
- Political fanaticism and religious fundamentalism.
- The "dark side" of globalisation, meaning
international terrorism, organised crime and the spread of weapons of
mass destruction.
- Climate change and energy security, entailing a
contest for resources and potential "environmental" migration on a mass
scale.
- The weakening of the nation state as well as of
organisations such as the UN, Nato and the EU.
To prevail, the generals call for an overhaul of Nato
decision-taking methods, a new "directorate" of U.S., European and Nato
leaders to respond rapidly to crises, and an end to EU "obstruction" of
and rivalry with Nato. Among the most radical changes demanded are:
- A shift from consensus decision-taking in Nato bodies
to majority voting, meaning faster action through an end to national
vetoes.
- The abolition of national caveats in Nato operations
of the kind that plague the Afghan campaign.
- No role in decision-taking on Nato operations for
alliance members who are not taking part in the operations.
- The use of force without UN security council
authorisation when "immediate action is needed to protect large numbers
of human beings."
In the wake of the latest row over military performance
in Afghanistan, touched off when the U.S. defence secretary, Robert
Gates, said some allies could not conduct counter-insurgency, the five
senior figures at the heart of the western military establishment also
declare that Nato's future is on the
line in Helmand province.
"Nato's credibility is at stake in Afghanistan," said
Van den Breemen.
"Nato is at a juncture and runs the risk of failure,"
according to the blueprint.
Naumann delivered a blistering attack on his own
country's performance in Afghanistan. "The time has come for Germany to
decide if it wants to be a reliable partner." By insisting on "special
rules" for its forces in Afghanistan, the Merkel government in Berlin
was contributing to "the dissolution
of Nato."
Ron Asmus, head of the German Marshall Fund thinktank
in Brussels and a former senior U.S. state department official,
described
the manifesto as "a wake-up call." "This report means that the core of
the Nato establishment is saying we're in trouble, that the west is
adrift and not facing up to the
challenges."
Naumann conceded that the plan's retention of the
nuclear first strike option was "controversial" even among the five
authors. Inge argued that "to tie our hands on first use or no first
use removes a huge plank of deterrence."
Reserving the right to initiate nuclear attack was a
central element of the west's cold war strategy in defeating the Soviet
Union. Critics argue that what was a productive instrument to face down
a nuclear superpower is no longer appropriate.
Robert Cooper, an influential shaper of European
foreign and security policy in Brussels, said he was "puzzled."
"Maybe we are going to use nuclear weapons before
anyone else, but I'd be wary of saying it out loud."
Another senior EU official said Nato needed to "rethink
its nuclear posture because the nuclear non-proliferation regime is
under enormous pressure."
Naumann suggested the threat of nuclear attack was a
counsel of desperation. "Proliferation is spreading and we have not too
many options to stop it. We don't know how to deal with this."
Nato needed to show "there is a big stick that we might
have to use if there is no other option," he said.
The Authors
John Shalikashvili
The U.S.'s top soldier under Bill Clinton and former
Nato
commander in Europe, Shalikashvili was born in Warsaw of Georgian
parents and emigrated to the U.S. at the height of Stalinism in 1952.
He
became the first immigrant to the U.S. to rise to become a four-star
general. He commanded Operation Provide
Comfort in northern Iraq at the end of the first Gulf war, then became
Saceur, Nato's supreme allied commander in Europe, before Clinton
appointed him chairman of the joint chiefs in 1993, a position he held
until his retirement in 1997.
Klaus Naumann
Viewed as one of Germany's and Nato's top military
strategists in the 90s, Naumann served as his country's armed forces
commander from 1991 to 1996 when he became chairman of Nato's military
committee. On his watch, Germany overcame its post-WWII taboo about
combat operations, with the Luftwaffe
taking to the skies for the first time since 1945 in the Nato air
campaign against Serbia.
Lord Inge
Field Marshal Peter Inge is one of Britain's top
officers, serving as chief of the general staff in 1992-94, then chief
of the defence staff in 1994-97. He also served on the Butler inquiry
into Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction and British
intelligence.
Henk van den Breemen
An accomplished organist who has played at Westminster
Abbey, Van den Breemen is the former Dutch chief of staff.
Jacques Lanxade
A French admiral and former navy chief who was also
chief of the French defence staff.

NATO Hears 'Noise before Defeat'
- M.K.Bhadrakumar*, Asia Times Online,
January 19, 2008 -
When the blame-game begins in an indeterminate war, it
is time to sit up and take note. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert
Gates' interview with the Los Angeles Times on Wednesday
rings alarm bells.
There has been no effort to claim he was misquoted. In
fact, Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell confirmed the chief was
"not backing off his fundamental criticism that NATO [North Atlantic
Treaty Organization] needs to do a better job in training for
counter-insurgency."
Morrell made a little concession, though, that Gates
meant no offence to any particular NATO country. NATO secretary general
Jaap de Hoop Scheffer responded he had the "greatest respect" for NATO
forces fighting in southern Afghanistan. He advised Washington,
"Combating insurgency is a complex
thing, and not always easy." At The Hague, the American ambassador was
summoned and asked to "clarify." Dutch Defense Minister Van Middlekoop
publicly regretted, "This is not the Robert Gates we have come to
know." Other European politicians expressed surprise, indignation.
In NATO history there have been few such laundering of
dirty linen in public view. Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and Taliban
head Mullah Omar have achieved something that Soviet leaders Josef
Stalin, Nikita Khrushchev and Leonid Brezhnev couldn't.
Washington Mocks NATO
Gates' criticism was pinpointed -- NATO was a lemon. He
said: "I'm worried we're deploying [military advisors] that are not
properly trained and I'm worried we have some military forces that
don't know how to do counter-insurgency operations ... Most of the
European
forces, NATO forces, are not trained in counter-insurgency; they were
trained for the Fulda Gap [NATO's Cold War battle lines in Germany]."
Gates was giving vent to pent-up frustrations. Finally,
Afghanistan is threatening to be a blemish on his successfully nurtured
record in public service. On December 11, at the U.S. Senate Armed
Services Committee hearing on Afghanistan, Gates admitted somberly, "If
I had to sum up the current situation
in Afghanistan, I would say there is reason for optimism, but tempered
by caution." Gates warned the NATO mission "has exposed real
limitations in the way the alliance is, or organized, operated and
equipped. I believe the problem arises in a large part due to the way
various allies view the very nature of the alliance
in the 21st century, where in a post-Cold War environment, we have to
be ready to operate in distant locations against insurgencies and
terrorist networks." He solicited help from U.S. Congressmen for
"pressuring" the NATO capitals "to do the difficult work of persuading
their own citizens [in Europe] of the need
to step up to this challenge."
Gates again spoke forcefully at the meeting of NATO
defense ministers in Edinburgh, Scotland, on December 14. But "no one
at the table stood up and said: 'I agree with that,'" he later lamented.
This week, the Pentagon underscored its displeasure by
making a deployment of 3,200 Marine Corps to southern Afghanistan,
bringing the U.S. presence to about 30,000 troops. The NATO force in
Afghanistan numbers about 40,000, of which 14,000 are Americans. The
Washington Post
described
the U.S. move as one to "fill a void created in part by NATO's
inability to fight the insurgency adequately, a job the allies never
signed up to do." The majority of the marines will be directly engaged
in fighting in the south alongside British, Australian, Dutch and
Canadian troops, who have taken record casualties
during the past year.
Of course, shadowboxing is to be expected in the run-up
to the NATO summit meeting in Bucharest, Romania, in April, where
Afghanistan will be a key agenda item. But that cannot explain away the
unusual public discord. The reluctance on the part of major NATO powers
to commit more troops
to Afghanistan arises as much out of profound disagreement with
Washington over the objectives of the war and the fashion in which the
U.S. spearheads the war as in deference to growing anti-war sentiment
in Europe.
A General Hits Out
Gates' criticism draws heavily from a recent study
authored by the U.S. general who commanded the forces in Afghanistan
from October 2003 until May 2005, Lieutenant General David W Barno, in
the prestigious journal Military Review. Barno is an
influential
voice in the U.S. defense community. He chose to begin his paper
devoted to the counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan, citing lines
by ancient Chinese general Sun Tzu, "Strategy without tactics is the
slowest road to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before
defeat."
Barno claimed the U.S. counter-insurgency strategy
during his period produced "positive and dramatic" results. He gave the
"center of gravity" in his strategy to the Afghan people and not the
"enemy." He kept in view the Afghan people's "immense enmity to foreign
forces" and deduced that eschewing
the "Soviet attempt at omnipresence" in Afghanistan, only through a
"light footprint approach" instead, could the war be successfully
fought.
Barno wrote that Afghan people's tolerance for a foreign
presence was "a bag of capital [that was] finite and had to be spent
slowly and frugally" and, therefore, under his charge U.S. forces took
great care to avoid Afghan casualties, detainee abuse, or
transgressions in observance of respect to tribal
leaders or causing offence to traditional Afghan culture.
Second, Barno outlined that he and the then-U.S.
ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, bonded as a team and they had a "unity of
purpose" in ensuring perfect interagency and international-level
coordination. According to Barno, the slide began in mid-2005 after he
and Khalilzad were reassigned. Washington
then decided to publicly announce that NATO was assuming responsibility
for the war and that the U.S. was making a token withdrawal of 2,500
troops.
"Unsurprisingly, this was widely viewed in the region as
the first signal that the United States was 'moving for the exits,'
thus reinforcing long-held doubts about the prospects of sustained
American commitment. In my judgement, these public moves have served
more than any other U.S. actions since
2001 [the fall of the Taliban] to alter the calculus of both our
friends and our adversaries across the region -- and not in our favor."
Barno implied NATO messed up the top-notch command
structure he created. The result is, "With the advent of NATO military
leadership, there is today no single comprehensive strategy to guide
the U.S., NATO, or international effort." Consequently, he says, the
unity of purpose -- both interagency
and international -- has suffered and unity of command is fragmented,
and tactics have "seemingly reverted to earlier practices such as the
aggressive use of airpower."
Barno makes some chilling conclusions. First, he says
the "bag of capital" representing the tolerance of Afghan people for
foreign forces is diminishing. Second, NATO narrowly focuses on the
"20% military dimension" of the war, while ignoring the 80% comprising
non-military components. Third,
the "center of gravity" of the war is no longer the Afghan people but
the "enemy." Fourth, President Hamid Karzai's government is ineffectual
"under growing pressure from powerful interests within his
administration." Fifth, corruption, crime, poverty and a burgeoning
narcotics trade have eroded public confidence
in Karzai. Finally, "NATO, the designated heir to an originally popular
international effort, is threatened by the prospects of mounting
disaffection among the Afghan people."
What Can Be Achieved?
Somewhere along the line, mud-slinging had to happen.
Yet, almost everything Barno wrote could be true. Barno drew a handsome
self-portrait. He whitewashes a controversial phase of the war. NATO
inherited a dysfunctional war. By end-2006, it was no longer a winnable
war. When the alliance's defense ministers gathered in the Dutch
seaside resort of Noordwijk last November to commemorate the first
anniversary of NATO in Afghanistan, the crisis atmosphere was palpable.
There were no offers of major reinforcements by the
member countries. The Dutch indicated they were close to withdrawing
their 1,600-strong contingent from Uruzgan province in southern
Afghanistan the coming autumn. The likely knock-on effect of the Dutch
decision on countries such as Canada
worried everyone present at the meeting. Germany, France, Italy and
Spain insisted they were constrained by their national caveats guiding
deployment of troops on non-combat roles.
The result has been a sort of "Balkanization" of
Afghanistan, as Daan Everts, outgoing civilian representative of the
NATO secretary general in Kabul, admitted to al-Jazeera in a recent
interview. "You have a little 'German Afghanistan' in the north, an
'Italian Afghanistan' in the west, 'Dutch Afghanistan'
in Uruzgan and a 'Canadian Afghanistan' in Kandahar and so on.
Geographically we [NATO] have been fractured, but also sectorally with
equal ineffectiveness -- like giving the justice sector totally to the
Italians, counter-narcotics to the British, the police to Germans,
anti-terrorism to the Americans."
Everts was unusually frank for a high-ranking NATO
official. He said Afghan reconstruction has been a "bonanza for
consultants, serious consultants, half-baked consultants, marginal
consultants and mailbox consultants"; there has been an outflow of
resources from Afghanistan of up to 40% of aid
given to the country. "So there is this aid industry that descends on a
poor nation and runs away with part of the loot." He called for a
government in Kabul that is "more serious about problems" such as
corruption, drug-trafficking and law-enforcement.
In such a mess, Lord (Paddy) Ashdown of
Norton-sub-Hamdon is due to arrive in Kabul shortly as the United
Nations' super envoy. Is a British colonial-style governor the right
answer? Lord Ashdown -- former Royal Marine commando and special forces
officer, Liberal Democrat leader, member of
Parliament, the European Union's high representative in
Bosnia-Herzegovina during 2002-2006 -- is a forceful personality, and
was hugely successful in restoring order to the Balkan country torn
apart by violence and ethnic cleansing.
But Afghanistan is notoriously untamed in history.
Ashdown has sought to combine Everts' former responsibilities with
those of Tom Koenigs, the low-profile German diplomat who served as the
UN's special representative in Afghanistan. He hopes to be the main
point of contact between Karzai's government
and the international forces, the European Union policing mission and
the UN contingent, apart from coordinating Afghan reconstruction
efforts.
That is much too much for anyone to take on. But Ashdown
is gifted. Even then, the chances are the blame-game is going to
accelerate. The Afghans are unlikely to accept a British viceroy - even
if he wears a blue beret. Karzai's government resents being bypassed.
While in theory a "unity of purpose"
and a formal link between the Afghan government and among NATO and the
EU and the UN is desirable, there are problems. Some UN member
countries do not want a direct relationship with NATO (or vice versa).
NATO will chaff at subordination to the UN. There is no such thing as a
unified EU voice. Least
of all, Washington simply doesn't know how to be self-effacing.
Reconciliation with the Taliban
But then, Ashdown's real mission lies elsewhere, in
addressing the core issue: What do we do with the Taliban? No doubt,
the Taliban's exclusion from the Bonn conference seven years ago proved
to be a horrible mistake. That was also how the Afghan and Pakistan
problem came to be joined at the hips.
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf made a valid point
in his interview with the German weekly magazine Der Spiegel
this week when he said al-Qaeda isn't the real problem that faces
Pakistan. "I don't deny the fact that al-Qaeda is operating here
[Pakistan]. They are carrying out terrorism
in the tribal areas; they are the masterminds behind these suicide
bombings. While all of this is true, one thing is for sure: the
fanatics can never take over Pakistan. This is not possible. They are
militarily not so strong they can defeat our army, with its 500,000
soldiers, nor politically -- and they do not stand a chance
of winning the elections. They are much too weak for that," Musharraf
said.
The heart of the matter is Pashtun alienation. The
Taliban represent Pashtun aspirations. As long as Pashtuns are denied
their historical role in Kabul, Afghanistan cannot be stabilized and
Pakistan will remain in turmoil. Musharraf said, "There should be a
change of strategy right away. You [NATO]
should make political overtures to win the Pashtuns over."
This may also be the raison d'etre of UN
secretary general Ban Ki-moon's intriguing choice of a Briton as his
new special representative. Conceivably, the inscrutable Ban has been
told by Washington that Ashdown is just the right man to walk on an
upcoming secretive bridge, which will
intricately connect New York, Washington, London, Riyadh, Islamabad and
Kabul.
The point is, Britain grasps the Pashtun problem.
Britain realizes that the induction of U.S. special forces into the
Pakistani tribal areas, or the custodianship of Pakistan's nuclear
stockpile, or an al-Qaeda takeover in Pakistan isn't quite the issue
today.
That is why Musharraf's four-day visit to London
starting on January 25 assumes critical importance. British mediation
in Pakistani politics may already be working. Former prime minister
Nawaz Sharif has begun calibrating his stance.
Reconciliation between Musharraf and the Sharif
brothers is in the cards. Shahbaz Sharif will be on call in London
during Musharraf's stay there. If the reconciliation -- thanks to
British (and Saudi) mediation -- leads to the formation of a national
government in Pakistan, a leadership role for Nawaz
Sharif may ensue and Pakistani politics may gain traction. Nawaz Sharif
is the only politician today with the credentials and stature to mount
the dangerous platform of Islamist nationalism and reach out to the
Taliban and its followers inside Pakistan. The Sharif brothers could be
invaluable allies for the Pakistani
military -- and for NATO -- at this juncture.
Barno sidesteps the ground realities. The U.S.
strategy's real failure happened, in fact, in the 2003-2005 period when
he was in charge of the war. Of course, the failure was not at the
military level, but at the political and diplomatic level. That was a
crucial phase when the window of opportunity was
still open for a course correction over the Taliban's exclusion from
the Afghan political process. The Taliban should have been invited to
come in from the cold and join an intra-Afghan dialogue and
reconciliation. The extreme emotions of 2001 had by then begun to ebb
away.
On the contrary, Khalilzad's diplomatic brief was that
the U.S. presidential election of 2004 was the priority for the White
House. The "war on terror" in Afghanistan was a milch cow in U.S.
domestic politics. Presidential advisor Karl Rove and Vice President
Dick Cheney shrewdly calculated that
an enemy in the Hindu Kush was useful for the Republican Party
campaign, while resonance of the booming guns in Afghanistan would be a
good backdrop for election rhetoric against a decorated war veteran
like John Kerry.
And, showcasing of Karzai in Kabul's presidential palace
helped display Afghanistan as a success story. A victorious Karzai
indeed landed in the U.S. to a hero's welcome from George W Bush on
election eve. Bush went on to win a second term, but the Afghan war was
lost. The slide began by mid-2005
as the embittered Taliban began regrouping. As the year progressed, as
Everts and many others pointed out, the Iraq war "sucked the oxygen
away from Afghanistan." How could Gates possibly admit all that? He
would rather NATO take the blame. But then, it is a sideshow in
actuality.
Britain is now called on to salvage the Afghan war. NATO
at best will be a sleeping partner. The Hindu Kush is all set to be
Lord Ashdown's theater. He represents the UN; the White House reposes
confidence in him; he takes counseling and directions from London,
which coordinates with Riyadh
and Islamabad -- and then, gingerly, he sets out, searching for the
Taliban. Incidentally, among his many attributes, Lord Ashdown is a
gifted polyglot who speaks fluent Mandarin Chinese and other languages.
Maybe he already speaks Pashto.

U.S. War on Terror Moves East
- Jim Lobe, Inter Press Service, January
16, 2008 -
The Pentagon's announcement here Tuesday that it is
dispatching some 3,200 marines to Afghanistan underlines both
Washington's mounting concern about the strength of the Taliban
insurgency and the growing sense here that the central front in its
nearly six-and-a-half-year-old "war on terror" has moved back
to its South Asian roots.
The deployment, which will take place over the next
three months, will bring the total number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan
to a record level of some 30,000 -- still significantly less than the
160,000 in Iraq but nonetheless an implicit admission that U.S. and
NATO forces have not been able to subdue
the largely Pashtun rebels. Indeed, on the eve of the Pentagon's
announcement, a suicide bomber penetrated a luxury hotel in Kabul
itself, setting off a blast that killed more than half a dozen people,
including a U.S. citizen and a Norwegian reporter covering the visit of
his country's foreign minister. The still-shaky
security situation in Afghanistan, however, is not Washington's only
concern in the region.
Continuing political uncertainties in the wake of
former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's assassination in neighbouring
Pakistan, where a number of disparate Islamist and Pashtun militias
have recently united under the leadership of a Pakistani Taliban
commander closely allied with al Qaeda, have propelled
that nuclear-armed nation to the top of Washington's national security
agenda.
Indeed, the assertion that "Pakistan is the world's
most dangerous place" has become a new cliche of foreign policy
discourse here in recent weeks.
Last month, Defence Secretary Robert Gates highlighted
that concern, noting that "al Qaeda right now seems to have turned its
face toward Pakistan and attacks on the Pakistani government and
Pakistani people," he asserted, just a week before Bhutto's
assassination.
Her killing, as well as indications that Pakistan's
deeply unpopular president and former army chief, Gen. Pervez
Musharraf, was manoeuvring to first delay and then to manipulate
elections now scheduled for next month, renewed a growing policy debate
over what conditions, if any, Washington should
attach to its nearly 1.5 billion dollars in mainly military aid to
Pakistan this year.
Indeed, the Pentagon's quiet announcement late on Dec.
31, just four days after Bhutto's assassination, that it had approved
the transfer by defence giant Lockheed Martin of 18 F-16 warplanes to
Pakistan fueled criticism that the administration's priorities were
badly skewed.
"The decision to go ahead with a half-billion sale of
advanced fighter aircraft to Pakistan shows how dangerously misguided
President Bush's policy is: How can the White House even think of
green-lighting such a sale at such an incredibly sensitive time," said
the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee, Joseph Biden.
"It sends exactly the wrong message to the Pakistani
generals, and to the Pakistani people. This is the time we should be
putting the pressure on the government and military to fully
investigate the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and to hold free and
fair elections -- not let them off the hook," he said.
And while Biden and others argued that military aid
should be conditioned on political reform, other critics have focused
on recent reports that most of the 11 billion dollars the U.S. has
provided Pakistan over the past five years has been used to buy
conventional weapons systems more appropriate
for war against India than the increasingly powerful Pakistani Taliban
based in the Pashtun-dominated Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA) and the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP).
"The F-16s really can't be used for counter-insurgency
in FATA," according to Steve Coll, author of the prize-winning history
of the CIA, Afghanistan, and al Qaeda from 1979 to 9/11, Ghost Wars
and president of the New America Foundation (NAF). "The F-16s are a
symbol of what
has been wrong with U.S. aid to Pakistan."
Increasingly worried about the advances made by the
Pakistani Taliban under Baitullah Mehsud -- whom Musharraf blamed for
Bhutto's assassination -- and the ineffectiveness of the Pakistani
military in fighting it, top U.S. officials have been discussing plans
to authorise the CIA and Special Operations
Forces (SOF) to mount cross-border operations from Afghanistan against
key Taliban and al Qaeda targets.
Such actions, however, would trigger a severe backlash
against both the U.S., whose popularity in Pakistan, like Musharraf's,
is at an all-time low, and any Pakistani leader who was seen as
condoning the raids, according to regional specialists. Musharraf
himself has publicly denounced the idea, although
he has occasionally permitted missile strikes against specific targets
by U.S. aircraft based in Afghanistan.
"It would be political suicide for a Pakistani leader
to permit (such operations)," said Peter Berger, the co-director with
Coll of the NAF's Terrorism and Counter-Insurgency Initiative and a
well-regarded expert on al Qaeda and the region.
"(Popular) approval for (Osama) bin Laden goes up to 70
percent in FATA and the Northwest Frontier," he added noting that one
recent survey showed that three out of four Pakistanis nationwide
oppose U.S. intervention.
The administration is also reportedly mulling plans to
try to replicate what it considers a success in Pakistan -- supporting
Pashtun clan militias that are willing to take on Mehsud and his
Taliban, although scores of clan leaders who might have taken up arms
were executed or replaced by various Taliban
factions over the last several years.
A related option -- which appears to be the operational
strategy at the moment -- is to ensure that at least some U.S. military
aid is tied to specific performance, step up counter-insurgency
training for the army and the paramilitary Frontier Corps, and provide
750 million dollars in development aid to
FATA over five years as part of a long-term effort to weaken the
insurgency.
But Christine Fair, a regional specialist at the Rand
Corporation, has argued that such a plan is "four years too late" given
the degree to which radical forces have taken control of the region.
"I'm not sure who we would spend it on," she said at a recent briefing.
U.S. officials are also hoping that next month's
elections will produce a large moderate and secular majority in
parliament, oust the radical coalition of Islamist parties that
currently control regional governments in the Pashtun belt, the NWFP
and Baluchistan, and help restore confidence in the central
government which has been badly battered by Musharraf's efforts over
the past year to remain in power.
Meanwhile, Washington hopes that the additional troops
next door will help both stabilise Afghanistan and shame its reluctant
NATO allies into sending more troops to the same end. Of the 3,200 new
troops, about 1,000 will be used for training the Afghan Army, and the
rest will be deployed to southern
Afghanistan to fight the Taliban alongside British, Australian, Dutch
and Canadian troops, who have taken record casualties during the past
year.

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